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NFL Comment Running backs appear to have less leverage than ever

WHEN Todd Gurley was given a four-year, $57.5 million (£46.1m) contract extension in July of 2018, there were mixed reactions. 

Gurley deserved his money, coming off of a strong 2017 season where the Los Angeles Rams exerted themselves as one of the hottest up and coming teams in the NFL. 

Lead by Sean McVay, the Rams finished with an overall record of 11-5, winning their first NFC West title since 2003 before being knocked out of the playoffs in the wildcard round by the Atlanta Falcons.

The Georgia running back totalled 2,093 all-purpose yards along with 19 total touchdowns on his way to winning the Offensive Player of the Year and earning his monster deal. 

This deal, however, would not prove to be the precedent for running back contracts moving forward. It would be the anomaly. 

Even now, when players seem to hold all or most of the cards in negotiations, running backs appear to have less leverage than ever before.

Holdouts are becoming more commonplace in the NFL. The players are aware of their overall value to their respective franchises and look to barter their case into a lengthy, and costly, extension. 

If the players don’t get what they want, they’re traded to teams who are willing to pay them. Just look at Khalil Mack and Antonio Brown — both wanted to be paid like superstars and the Oakland Raiders and Pittsburgh Steelers wouldn’t budge.

Mack was subsequently traded to the Chicago Bears, who promptly signed him to a six-year $141m (£113m) deal, making him the highest-earning defensive player in the NFL. 

He intended to hold out for the 2018 season and gave the Raiders no choice but to trade him and reap some sort of value for him.

Antonio Brown’s seemingly endless and tempestuous trade saga was solved earlier this off-season when he was traded to the Oakland Raiders, who made him the highest-paid wide receiver in the NFL. 

Players know their relative values. Teams do too. If one team don’t pay up, then there will always be another five that are willing, unless you are a running back in the NFL.

Running the ball is a dying art. The numbers only show a slight drop but change is on the horizon.

In 2017, the league as a whole averaged 26.7 rushing attempts per game. That number dropped to 25.8 attempts per game in 2018. Those numbers could be skewed by teams running down the clock, though.

This most efficient and valuable offence comes from passing the ball, just like a lay-up or a three-point shot in basketball.

The maths is simple — passing the ball has a higher expected value than running it, which doesn’t bode well for the running backs of the league.

Unless, of course, they become more engrained into teams’ passing offences.

You only need to look at the impact that running backs like Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey and James White have on their teams’ offence. 

The value of running backs as pass catchers has never been higher, but half of their value comes from running the ball. So how can they be paid adequately by only doing half a job?

More so, we’ve seen starting running backs in the NFL go down injured and their back-ups perform admirably in their presence. A perfect example would be last season in Pittsburgh. 

Le’Veon Bell demanded a new contract and sat out the whole season after refusing to play under the franchise tag. He wanted to be paid like a wide receiver, with the numbers to back it up.

The Steelers’ rushing game survived without Bell on the field, courtesy of second-year pro, James Conner, who rushed for 973 yards and 12 touchdowns. 

They missed out on the playoffs but now look to have another star in the making to pair with Ben Roethlisberger in his twilight years.

Bell went on to get paid, but it wasn’t by the Steelers. It wasn’t the number he wanted either. He ended up signing a four-year $52m (£41.7m) deal with the New York Jets, with $27m (£21.6m) in guarantees. 

A hefty deal, for sure, but Bell reportedly wanted more guarantees in the contract, but a relatively limited market forced him to make a decision.

Unfortunately for Bell, and the other running backs in the NFL, they are proving to themselves that they are all too easily replaceable. 

Elite running backs are great, but the fewer teams run the more expendable they become, at which point, the gap between great and good becomes smaller.

With the NFL operating in a hard cap, teams can’t afford to pay running backs top dollars to only use them 10 times a game. That’s not efficient or economical. Using a running back to their full potential increases the risk of wear and tear too. Not everyone is Frank Gore.

The league is transcending to heights its never been to before, the part running backs may play in that in the future is certainly up in the air. 

Their roles may not diminish but don’t expect them to be paid like superstars any time soon, even if they are.

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