HONG KONG will hold District Council elections this year, December 10. Recent data shows a drop in voter registration among younger voters, but an increase in registration among the elderly.

However, the US state media outlet, Voice of America (VoA), has falsely portrayed this data as proof of “young people” losing faith in their democracy after the introduction of the National Security Law for Hong Kong.

This crude propaganda against reunification is a masterclass in distorting statistics to fit a political agenda.

VoA leads with the headline that “young people are disheartened,” then begins the first paragraph linking the recent voter registration data to the National Security Law. Perhaps their editors are unaware of the first and most important lesson of statistical analysis: Correlation does not imply causation.

Beyond the Spin

Voter registration data published at the beginning of August shows a total of 4.32 million voters, 82,705 fewer people than the 4.41 million officially registered the year before. Among 18-20-year-olds, the drop is from 622,446 to 558,286, just over 10 per cent. For those aged 31-60, the drop was 3.5 per cent, but for those over 61, the number of voters has risen by 3.8 per cent, and for those over 71, there's an even larger rise of 5.6 per cent.

The drop in voter registration is evident, but blaming China’s National Security Law for this ignores other variables within Hong Kong society over the past few years.

For example, it should be evident that voter participation rises during times of high polarisation and falls during “normal” times when social conflict has cooled.

The highest voter participation in Hong Kong was during the protests in 2019, which saw 386,000 new voters join the electoral roll, the highest increase since 2003.

Of course, this was a moment of extreme polarisation; anti-China groups were holding violent protests daily, and some protesters were hoisting the British colonial flag in public institutions.

These daily conflicts fizzled out long ago; the movement’s ringleaders are now working full-time in the West on the Think Tank keynote speaker circuit. Logically, in the absence of intense polarisation, a level of apathy can set in as individuals focus on their own personal affairs.

Bread and Butter Issues

Another factor that VoA and others overlook when discussing Hong Kong youth is that this year’s District elections are not a referendum on Beijing, but rather a verdict on local governance and service delivery. In that regard, Hong Kong’s youth have much to feel despondent about. Young people are suffering from a severe housing crisis, a product of Hong Kong’s hyper-free-market system.

In May of last year, the number of public housing applicants reached 245,000, with an average wait time of 6.1 years — the highest in over two decades.

High rents have forced about 220,000 of the city’s most vulnerable residents into grim, often illegal accommodations, like the infamous “coffin homes” — subdivided units in tenements barely large enough to fit a bed inside.

Beijing has actually been urging Hong Kong authorities to do more on this issue. Back in 2021, when the National Security Law was being introduced, Vice Premier Han Zheng stressed the need to address the situation, saying: “The housing problem in Hong Kong is related to its history and development. Although it is really difficult to solve the problem, we still need to start the work.

“If we just lay the problem aside and don’t come to a consensus or come up with an idea, especially when there is a solution and the legislative council starts a filibuster, Hong Kong people’s interests will be harmed.”

Despite efforts by Hong Kong authorities to heed Beijing’s calls, through a number of policies such as boosting land supply lifting some restrictions on redeveloping old buildings, the city’s hyper free market system remains an obstacle.

VoA attempt to use voter registration data to portray Hong Kongers as apathetic due to Beijing is a masterclass in how statistics can be manipulated to fit an agenda. In this case, their agenda is to hinder the reunification process.