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Scottish independence and the SNP conference

For all its protestations over Brexit and independence, the SNP is has become comfortable managing the status quo, writes CONRAD LANDIN

IT WAS always destined to come this week. Nicola Sturgeon’s date stamp for the next Scottish independence referendum was perfectly timed ahead of SNP conference, which begins in Edinburgh today.

For what feels like an eternity her spokesman has been telling journalists that she would set out her plan of action “in the coming weeks and months.” Now the First Minister has a message for the party faithful — to ward off the growing threat of a grassroots rebellion.

It will also mean the conference is not dominated by scandal and infighting — a phenomenon still considered fairly alien to the SNP just a year ago. It’s not just the indictment of Alex Salmond with a string of sexual assault and attempted rape charges. In the past two weeks two Glasgow councillors have resigned the party whip, amid accusations of bullying.

But naturally, there are strings attached to the membership’s boon. Sturgeon’s vision for independence is based on last year’s economically conservative Growth Commission report — which advocates keeping the pound for a decade and spending restrictions Labour say would lead to prolonged austerity.
Plenty on Sturgeon’s side of the independence debate too are unhappy. Scottish Socialist Party convener Colin Fox described the package as a “starvation diet of 10 years of cuts, more rip-off privatisations and poverty pay,” which will “see working-class voters slam the door on Yes campaigners.”

At First Minister’s Questions on Thursday, Patrick Harvie, of the pro-independence Greens, set out his objections. “It’s vital that the government doesn’t bind the hands of a future independent Scotland by adopting the Growth Commission’s proposals,” he said.

“We heard yesterday that the First Minister wants a citizens’ assembly to set the direction for the next independence campaign. It’s clear from the conversations Greens are having with voters that they are far more likely to back independence if it’s based on a positive, bold and transformational vision for Scotland’s future, rather than ‘more of the same’ austerity and economic conservatism.”

Speaking to journalists after FMQs, Sturgeon’s spokesman said Harvie had missed the point — saying no hands would be bound, and that the direction of travel would be up to parties competing in elections after independence got the green light, and thus up to voters.

The spokesman had little to say when my Grub Street colleagues and I argued that surely an independent Scotland couldn’t just reverse-ferret on an issue like the currency? Having blasted the chaos of Brexit and claimed that nothing similar would happen in the transition to independence, surely Sturgeon wouldn’t want to undermine trust in her negotiating leverage by admitting it could all be undone?

In a sharp, extensive plea for SNP conference delegates to reject the Sturgeon plan, Common Weal think tank director Robin McAlpine described the proposal to keep the pound as “an untried, experimental system used by no-one like Scotland ever,” and “being justified on the basis of embarrassingly incompetent arguments from people who do not seem to understand what they’re proposing.”

He described the Growth Commission vision as a “sharp move to the right”, with it being clear there would be “no currency until the public sector is substantially shrunk as a proportion of the economy.” And he said it would “shatter the movement” which currently brings together pro-independence advocates in different parts of the spectrum: “I have never seen such a provocative act of destruction; this will tear us apart.”

The other string attached to the Sturgeon plan is that this is a vision for independence after Brexit goes ahead — despite the first minister making crystal clear she wants to cancel Brexit for the whole of Britain. It seems she is now so convinced of her inevitable failure in the latter project — which has arguably been a greater SNP priority than campaigning for independence in the past year — that she has refused to even game-plan a success. Her spokesman refused to say whether the independence referendum would go ahead if Brexit was cancelled, or whether there was even a contingency plan in place.

But for all its loud demands over Brexit and independence, the SNP is a party which has become most comfortable managing the status quo — a less rabid and perhaps more self-conscious New Labour, if you will. Left-wing supporters of independence have admirably stood up against the SNP leadership over this sorry scheme. If it comes to fruition, will they still argue that a breakaway offers the greatest hope for a socialist Scotland?

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