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THE Scottish Grand National at Ayr (3.35) is the big betting race of the day and despite the forecast of some light showers, the ground is going to be very spring like and that along with the four-mile trip will be the two main factors in deciding the destination of this famous prize.
Those two combinations along with the sharp nature of the track could see this run at a cracking pace and make this be a proper marathon test and that may well suit the sure jumping novice FAMOUS BRIDGE (nap). Despite running around green last time out at Wetherby, the seven-year-old jumped brilliantly over those testing fences beating Lord of Kerak readily.
A line through that stayer to Monbeg Genius leaves him with something to find with the Jonjo O’Neill entry who has since gone on to run a cracker behind subsequent Grand National hero Corach Rambler at Cheltenham in the Handicap Chase. However, the last named has gone up from 122 to 145 this season and endured a pretty hard race that day. Of course he could still be improving, but a long and hard season could also come into play.
So away from one of the market leaders, it is also worth considering the claims of both favourite Kitty’s Light and Cooper’s Cross. The former, despite jumping like an absolute dog, still had too much staying power for his rivals in the four-mile Eider Chase at Newcastle. Second last year, he is now 3lbs lower and anything like a clear round gives him a favourite’s chance, but of course he has been found in the market place.
Cooper’s Cross was travelling very easily when coming to grief at the fourth last in the Topham Chase at Aintree 10 days ago. If over that fall, he may have a say in the outcome here with a slight question mark about the distance.
The big supporting race of the day at the West of Scotland track is the Scottish Champion Handicap Hurdle at 2.25 and the Paul Nicholls-trained RUBAUD could well be the answer.
This five-year-old has been hugely progressive this season and his victory in the Dovecote Hurdle at Kempton Park saw him back on the right track. Milkwood finally has his ground and looks a dangerous opponent at a price, while the mare, Salsada, second to Epatante in a graded event at Doncaster, comes here fit and more importantly fresh for this challenge.
The Grade Two Champion Novice Chase at 2.00 may go the way of THUNDER ROCK. He has been taking on the very best novice chases down south all season and simply didn’t stay the searching three miles in the Novices Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. I expect him to relish the return to two and a half miles and he may have the legs of likely favourite Balco Coastal and Irish raider Tellmesomethinggirl.
The Group Three Greenham Stakes (Newbury, 2.40) is the latest 2,000 Guineas trial and I am hoping that Horris Hill Stakes winner, KNIGHT, (course and distance) can confirm that form over Grey’s Monument and also see off the classy Chaldean. With so much stamina on the dam’s side of the pedigree he is a certainty to stay a mile at Newmarket although give in the ground would be an advantage, and if you want to get on board before this trial he is a top price of 33/1 with several layers.
Moving on to the fillies and their 1,000 Guineas trial comes 35 minutes earlier at 2.05 with the Fred Darling Stakes, and several of the entries must be considered unlikely stayers here. That means this famous prize could come the way of EMBRACE who was tenderly campaigned last year with two runs on the all-weather, culminating with a comfortable success in a novice event at Wolverhampton. This is a big step up in class, but she travels through her races like a really classy filly in the making, and can see off the likes of Remarquee and relative outsider Fully Wet.
The Spring Cup Handicap at 3.15 is always a hugely competitive event and with runs under their belts I couldn’t put you off both the highly rated Toimy Son (ran in a Listed race at Doncaster) and Brunch, who was well ahead of his rival in the same race.
However, the ground is likely to be quite searching at the Berkshire track and that should play in the favour of GREAT MAX, now trained by the talented Alice Haynes after being with Michael O’Calllaghan in Ireland. As a juvenile he was placed in the Chesham Stakes behind Point Lonsdale and then ran well when second in the Solario Stakes at Sandown Park, followed by a fifth in the National Stakes at the Curragh.
If Alice has him ready to rock and roll on his first run for 207 days, he could well be nicely treated here off a mark of 99. Favourite Lattam fired through late to land the Lincolnshire Handicap coming from way back, and the more rain the better for this lightly raced son of Lope De Vega.
Elsewhere tomorrow I would implore you to have a second look at both LA PULGA in the mile and a half handicap at Thirsk at 2.35, while I am also rather sweet on LORD ABAMA in a division of the low grade six furlong handicap at 3.45. His run when a beaten favourite at Newcastle last time out was truly too bad to be true and the return to turf could just do the trick here.