THERE are only two people who can realistically be prime minister on July 5. One of them is Rishi Sunak and the other is Keir Starmer. For innumerable reasons, I would far rather it was Keir Starmer and fervently hope that is the outcome.

But this is a very strange election. The traditional polling is highly consistent (the MRP polls are a different matter). They generally show the Labour party polling in the low 40s, while the Tories are stuck around 20 per cent. That is around half of their vote recorded in the 2019 general election.

All other parties, bar one, are showing very modest gains or losses except one. That is Reform UK. (Of course in Scotland, the picture is quite a bit different, but that is a separate story).

The Labour vote has undoubtedly recovered from 2019. We may even exceed our vote share of 2017. We shall see.

But the largest and most dramatic change has been the slump in the Tory vote and the rise of Reform UK. If we compare the current poll-tracker average of votes to the outcome of the last general election, the Tories have lost 22.8 per cent in vote share, and Reform has gained 13.8 per cent.

So, the Tories have lost votes to some combination of parties (possibly including Labour). But the vulture that is feeding on the Tory carcass is a Reform one.

We should put aside the nonsense that in its various incarnations, Ukip, the Brexit Party and Reform UK has taken votes equally from Labour and the Tories. They do not and never have. The Tory commentariat is forced to admit the truth now only because the Tories are in catastrophic crisis. They are being routed by Reform UK.

This matters for the future of British politics for a number of reasons. Across the G7 countries we are seeing the parties of the traditional centre and centre-right giving political ground and losing votes to the far right. 

The far right were the big winners in the recent elections in Germany, France and Italy. In the US Joe Biden’s centrism is both capitulating and losing to Donald Trump. British politics fits into that pattern.

There is already a close political and even organisational relationship between the Tory Party and Reform UK and its predecessors. 

One previous Tory minister complained that both his Conservative Association treasurer and secretary were ex-Ukip (having returned under Boris Johnson). Tory figures such as Suella Braverman have called for an alliance with Reform UK and Farage has boasted that he will take over the Tories. Politically, he may already be close to achieving that among the Tory membership base.

Given these circumstances, and if the consistent polls are to be believed, the Reform UK phenomenon is not about to fade away any time soon. This is especially true unless there is a rapid turnaround in the fortunes of the British economy, which is not at all in line with the consensus view among economic forecasters.

There will be no tears shed for the possible decimation of the Tories. At the same time, we have to understand Reform UK if we are to tackle it and defeat it.

If we want to characterise a party we must examine its programme, its personnel, its policies and its alliances. In short, who does it stand for?

Reform UK is not known for its economic programme, which is a pity. Because its manifesto (which it claims is a “contract”) alone clearly outlines the character of the party. 

Let me list some of those policies. Reform UK would scrap income tax under £20,000 (which of course is a far bigger benefit to someone on £50,000 than someone on £16,000 a year). It would abolish inheritance tax altogether. It would also abolish all tax on profits under £100,000 a year and abolish IR35 for sole traders. It would also lift the VAT threshold to £150,000 a year and abolish business rates for small companies.

We should not neglect its social-economic policies, which include introducing an NHS voucher scheme along with tax relief on private healthcare. It would cut or abolish stamp duty even on homes worth over £1.5 million, cut foreign aid by 50 per cent, cut government departmental budgets by 5 per cent across the board (except the military, the police and other arms of the state) and scrap Net Zero climate targets altogether.

This is so obviously a programme for the well-to-do middle classes it is almost a stereotype. It has nothing to say about growth, about tackling climate change, the cost-of-living crisis, the failures in our public services, rising inequality, except how it will add to them. 

Workers or workers’ rights? Forget it. The poor and the oppressed? They can go to hell.

This is reinforced by a look at its policies. Because, as far as ordinary voters are concerned, it only has one policy, to “stop the boats.” 

This is the only policy that it is popularly associated with. In fact, as the manifesto says, their policy is to freeze all immigration, except in parts of healthcare.

This not simply a party of the middle class, but of the angry middle class. They are angry because banks were bailed out in the banking crisis, while many of them went bust. They are angry because lockdowns were completely mishandled and many more suffered or went bankrupt. They are angry because the big business profiteers then kicked them when they were down in the inflation crisis.

But they direct their anger at people who look like me, black and Asian people, and Muslims. And at anyone they think is a foreigner.

A glance at their list of candidates confirms this pattern. Many are former City traders, failed businesspeople, property developers, small business owners, grifters and charlatans.  And failed politicians from other parties.

Some of them are so angry they are friends on Facebook with a fascist or say that Hitler was praiseworthy. 

By far their most important sponsor and ally was Trump, who engineered Farage standing aside for Boris Johnson in 2019, after Trump had a string of public clashes with Theresa May. That was their big moment. Until now.

So, whatever the outcome of the two elections in July and November, we must clearly understand the threat of Reform UK and treat it with all seriousness.

Diane Abbott is the Labour parliamentary candidate for Hackney North and Stoke Newington.