WHEN British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson and his US counterpart Secretary of State Rex Tillerson met in London on Tuesday, both were at pains to insist that behind Turkey’s invasion of Syrian territory around Afrin at the weekend was “a legitimate interest in protecting its own borders and its own security.”

Tillerson told a press conference: “We recognise and fully appreciate Turkey’s legitimate right to protect its own citizens from terrorist elements that may be launching attacks against Turkish citizens and Turkish soil from Syria. 

“We’re engaged with Turkey and we are engaged also with the leadership of our coalition and are asking that both sides show restraint, please minimise the impact on civilian casualties … work together to address Turkey’s legitimate security concerns in a way that’s satisfactory to Turkey.”

Johnson, sounding like a latter-day Marquess of Queensberry, added: “I would underscore what Rex has just said in calling for restraint on both sides and an absolute minimum of casualties, low incidence of casualties.”

A different note was struck by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, speaking in Moscow on the same day. “We have been noting for a long time that the United States is moving to establish alternative institutions of state authority on a substantial part of Syrian territory,” he said.

“Washington openly and covertly delivers modern weapons to Syria and provides them to units co-operating with it, primarily the Syrian Democratic Forces, which relies on Kurdish militia.”

Lavrov likewise avoided blaming Ankara for its invasion, placing ultimate responsibility for the crisis at Washington’s door.
Russia has attempted to keep open negotiation channels with the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD), which effectively governs the Kurdish territories outside the control of Damascus. 

Referring to multilateral talks scheduled soon in the Black Sea resort of Sochi, Lavrov said: “As concerns the Kurds’ role in the further political process, it must be secured without a doubt, but at a common platform where all Syrian ethnic, religious and political forces are called for respecting Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. 

“On these grounds, the Kurds’ representatives were included in the list of Syrians invited to the Syrian National Dialogue Congress in Sochi next week.”

Lavrov did not say which Kurdish groups were on the list. However, as the PYD and Washington have moved closer together, Russian attitudes have hardened.

“The USA has long been discouraging Kurds, with whom it is co-operating, from a dialogue with Damascus. Washington has been actively stoking separatist sentiments among the Kurds, while completely ignoring the sensitive nature and regional dimension of the Kurdish issue. 

“While trying to understand the motives of this policy of Washington, one has no choice but to assume that it is based on a misunderstanding of the entire situation or that it is a deliberate provocation,” Lavrov said.

Russia, of course, has its own agenda. It has repeatedly rejected US-backed regime change in Syria and defended the principle of Syrian territorial integrity. 

But it has also walked a tightrope between keeping close contacts with the PYD and attempting to benefit from Turkey’s widening rift with the US.

In fact, Russian military intervention had previously been the key to keeping territory around Afrin out of Turkish hands, when the PYD extended the areas under its control during the collapse of Islamic State (Isis) in the region throughout last year.

In autumn 2017, Russia sent contingents of its military police to create a buffer zone outside Afrin between the Kurdish militia and Turkish-backed “Free Syrian Army” units. Moscow effectively blocked Ankara’s attempts to displace the PYD.

The YPG was so confident of Moscow’s protection that it said on October 29 last year: “The mission of Russian forces together with the YPG and Jaish al-Suwar [an SDF affiliate] is to ensure security of Sheba and Afrin.”

So what has changed? 

While Lavrov has denied collusion, it seems unlikely that Ankara would have embarked on its invasion without some kind of tacit understanding that Russian forces, land and air, would not be engaged. Turkish military officials also visited Moscow before the attack.

It would appear that Russia also took last week’s announcement by Tillerson of a permanent US presence in Syria and the creation of a 30,000-strong US-trained and funded Border Force, based on the SDF, as a step too far and withdrew its security guarantee.

That is certainly the conclusion being drawn by some Kurdish leaders, who are calling for a boycott of Kurdish participation in the Sochi talks scheduled for the end of this month.

Aldar Khalil, a co-president of the executive body of the Movement for a Democratic Society (TEV-DEM), the governing coalition in Rojava, a Kurdish-dominated self-autonomous enclave in northern Syria, said: “Naturally, in light of the Turkish attack on our areas and the Russian collusion with them and the Russian support for them, Sochi no longer has any meaning in order to participate in it.”

The Kurdish National Alliance in Syria, a coalition of five parties in Rojava, announced on Monday that it would not participate in the Sochi congress because of Russia’s actions.    

The purpose of the Sochi congress was to “contribute to finding a political solution for Syria and putting an end to a seven-year long conflict, but we were surprised with the Russian retreat, giving the chance for the Turks to instigate a new flame of war,” the alliance stated. 

It also appears that a Russian proposal to reinstate Syrian central government control over the border region was rebuffed. 
According to TEV-DEM leading member Aldar Xelil, “Russia proposed to the Afrin administration that, if Afrin was ruled by the Syrian regime, Turkey wouldn’t attack it. The Afrin canton administration refused the proposal.”

Partnered to Washington, abandoned by Moscow and unwilling to cede security control of their territories to the Syrian central government, the Kurdish groups will face some uncomfortable long-term dilemmas after this battle against the Turkish invaders is over. 

Most critically it will mean focusing on finding allies within Syria, not relying on those outside its borders.