EIGHTEEN months from an election that threatens four more years of Donald Trump, US politics is in a state of flux, with many similarities to — and lessons for — Britain.  

The political Establishment is disintegrating. In the words of Pete Buttigieg, one of the 23 candidates for the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination, “Normal is broken.”  

This opens huge opportunities for the left. But during a recent visit, I saw few signs of the unified campaign necessary to reverse the deep political disillusionment Trump has exploited.    

In a similar way to Brexit, mainstream US politicians and media are obsessed with something that has little day-to-day significance for working-class people.  

The Mueller report certainly points towards a gross abuse of democracy for which Trump, but many others too, should be held to account.  

But, like whether or not Britain stays in the EU, the impeachment question is consuming most of the political oxygen, while living conditions fall and poverty rises.  

Similarly, the constant fixation with opinion polls distracts attention from issues which, quite literally, are about the future of the planet.

The best hope for cutting through this morass remains Bernie Sanders. None of the others who want to run against Trump (if we assume he’s the Republican candidate next year — likely, but not inevitable) have anything like Sanders’s credentials.  

His campaign slogan, “Not me — us,” perfectly captures the need to escape from personality-driven politics and the hero worship the left is too often susceptible to. But as with Jeremy Corbyn, the ruling class, aided and abetted by those in his own party, are determined to sabotage Sanders.      

With more similarities to Britain, Sanders is constantly trying to defend himself against the “accusation” of being a socialist. He should stop. No amount of appeasement will persuade the right to call off its dogs.  

Like Corbyn, they see Sanders as a threat that must be destroyed. Instead, and again like Corbyn, Sanders should put his faith in the movement that propelled him from obscurity in 2016.  

The huge crowds both men attract to rallies are beyond the control of their enemies and are capable of galvanising the kind of grassroots campaigns that really matter.    

With that in mind, on the same day Trump was in my city meeting the Queen, I was in his meeting people plotting his downfall.  

The first meeting of the Upper Manhattan/Bronx Democratic Socialists for Bernie campaign brought together the kind of young (mostly), diverse and energetic people that have already shaken the status quo, including by the election of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, also in New York City.  

While recognising the limitations of the Democratic Party, they want to campaign for Sanders by emphasising the socialist elements of his programme.   

The Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) has become a significant force for change in US politics, particularly in some cities, including New York and Chicago. Quite rightly, the DSA has officially, if not uncritically, endorsed Sanders.  

But to make that support effective requires engaging with local campaigns, beyond elections. During my US visit, I spoke to lots of tenants and activists fighting for housing justice.  

None of them reported significant involvement from the DSA. A similar criticism can be made of Momentum in Britain.

Failing to fully recognise such a massive issue for working-class communities as housing is a mistake of the labour movement on both sides of the Atlantic. It feeds a sense of desperation and uncertainty that fuels the far right. 

I asked about 20 working-class Americans I met what they thought would happen in the 2020 election and got 20 different answers. This political fragmentation is a sign of capitalist crisis, but also of a failure of the left to offer a clear, convincing alternative. Potentially, that lets Trump back in.

Significantly, some of Sanders’s Democratic Party rivals are trying to steal some of his clothes. They recognise that his message of real change in favour of working-class people has wide support.  

But they’re all operating within the straitjacket of the political Establishment which only Sanders has the capacity to break free from. There’s a long time to go, but if the eventual candidate to take on Trump is a pseudo-radical moderate like Elizabeth Warren or Joe Biden, the outcome could easily be the same as last time.   

The nightmare scenario of Trump in the White House and Johnson in 10 Downing Street is a real possibility. To avoid it, the US and British labour and trade union movements must stop trying to beat our enemies at their own game and talking to ourselves.  

These are dangerous times. We need unapologetic, confident, socialist policies that rally people to the sense that things can be different, in or out of the EU, with or without impeachment and not just at election time. There’s a lot to lose if we don’t, but a lot to gain if we can.