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A REALLY superb afternoon of jump racing across several cards today and I will deal with the big races of the afternoon shortly, but let’s start with the best bet on Saturday, which comes at Aintree in the Handicap Chase at 1.32 in the form of the mud-loving NO RISK DES FLOS (nap).

With very heavy rain forecast throughout yesterday and indeed today it could well be that the meeting becomes in jeopardy — let’s hope not. The selection has finally been given a chance by the handicapper to return to some kind of form having been rated as high as 137 this time last year and now set to run off a mark of just 126.

That rating was obviously too high for him to show his best form, but there are now a number of factors in his favour. First, despite being nine-year-old going on 10, he is still lightly raced and is only set to start in his 13^th chase start, having won previously off ratings of 127 and 134. Give in the ground and indeed plenty of it is no problem for him, plus he has the added bonus of the brilliant Sean Bowen on board.

In my starting price forecast I made him an 8/1 shot, so the very fact that double figure odds are being banded around all over the place makes him a solid each-way play in my book. In such a tight and competitive handicap there are of course plenty of dangers and if we base the assessment of this race on soft/heavy ground then surely the biggest players against him will be Richmond Lake, bypasses the Becher Chase for this, and Springwell Bay.

The last named takes a welcome drop in trip, but I still fancy he will find it hard giving up 19lbs to my selection trying to carry 12 stone in hock deep ground.

The Becher Handicap Chase (2.07) will therefore be a real slog in the mud, and that long run home is a daunting task even for the most stamina laden entries.

Chianti Classico will be verging on Gold Cup class if he could carry 12 stone to victory here, equating to a mark of 157 and giving lumps of weight away all round. But the fact is, this is not a race with much strength in depth to it, and it wouldn’t surprise me were he to go very close if he takes to the fences. But in receipt of 21lbs I think IRON BRIDGE will have the edge. I recently marked him down as a Welsh National horse, second last year, and he could still be, but a tough race here may see him bypass Chepstow.

I thought he ran a thoroughly commendable staying on third of nine at Carlisle on his seasonal debut off 136, and that should have put an edge on him. Along with recent Grand Sefton first and third, King Turgeon and Gaboriot, they are the three that I fancy to fight out the finish from the elbow. Of the other races on the card at the Liverpool track I shall also be having an interest on the likes of UNCLE BERT (3.17) and earlier on, ARCTIC SAINT (12.57).

I thought that the last named was a huge eye-catcher last time out at Leicester over an extended two-and-a-half miles and off a 3lbs lower mark, and with a deeper test of stamina I think that the grey gelding could surprise off his low mark which will obviously be an advantage in the likely prevailing going.

Rain is also going to be the port of call at Sandown Park which makes that long Esher hill from three-and-a-half furlongs out a real test, especially on the hurdles course which will be massively testing.

That could suit the four-year-old ROYAL WAY (2.25) who will relish the return to proper jumping ground after finding the turf too quick when finishing 11^th of the 15^th runners in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham. With two runs under his belt, the youngster will be tight fit for this and can take advantage of his light weight from the likes of fellow four-year-old Kabral Du Mathan and stable-mate and fellow outsider Spirit d’Aunou.

The London National Handicap Chase (3.35) ends the card and could be run in very tiring conditions. From the in form Twiston-Davies clan, Top of the Bill will love the step up in trip and is a player as is course specialist Certainly Red and the relatively lightly raced Mr Vango.

But they could all be trumped by COLLECTORS ITEM. The key piece of form that makes me fancy the Jonjo charge was his run on the Friday of this meeting last year when, after being outpaced from the last fence down the far side in a three-mile handicap chase, he fairly flew up the hill to finish a rapidly closing fourth of 10 to Animal.

He has since been dropped 2lbs for a run behind Bowtogreatness on good ground at Newbury which was never going to suit him. What this son of Flemensfirth needs is a deep test on this kind of ground, and he could readily outstay this lot as the rain gets into the ground.

As far as the feature races are concerned at the Esher track, Jonbon should win the Tingle Creek Chase (3.00), but the value call and probable forecast mixer surely has to be the mud-loving Boothill. He was only beaten a length-and-a-half by Henderson’s charge in the Cheltenham Chase and has half a chance of closing the gap even further here granted a clear round and an end to end gallop.

The Henry VIII Novices Chase looks a good renewal, but I am not so sure that deep ground would suit the odds-on favourite L’Eau du Sud and the conditions demand a small play against him on TOUCH ME NOT.

This lightly raced five-year-old landed the Grade Two Craddockstown Novices Chase by fully six lengths over Farren Glory and he could take another step forward, as he must do here, to see off this select field.