This is the last article you can read this month
You can read more article this month
You can read more articles this month
Sorry your limit is up for this month
Reset on:
Please help support the Morning Star by subscribing here
OF COURSE the big race of the weekend is the Cazoo Derby at Epsom (4.30) which surprisingly has just the one Aidan O’Brien runner (favourite Bolshoi Ballet), with his stablemate High Definition having defected in favour of the Irish version, which offers plenty of each-way alternatives in the rest of the 12-strong field.
Here is my A to Z for the big race run over a mile and a half of the twisting and undulating Surrey track.
1/ADAYAR
Impeccably bred colt who ran with great credit in the Lingfield Derby Trial and will quite obviously be better on this quicker ground.
The fact that he is a strong traveller is very much in his favour and this will be only his fifth career start but I would surprised if he played a major part in proceedings. One of three Godolphin entries.
2/BOLSHOI BALLET
Got stuck in the mud on his final juvenile start in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud, but on a sound surface he has looked very solid in winning both the Ballysax and Derrinstown at Leopardstown, both over a mile and a quarter this year.
His biggest asset is a high cruising speed allied to a top-class turn of foot and if he can obtain a good sit from stall nine he is the obvious one to beat.
As far as the extra quarter mile is concerned, well there is no reason why he shouldn’t get home and being a well-balanced colt he should have no problems with the gradients of this unique track.
3/GEAR UP
Readily outpaced when fifth in the Dante at York, this son of Teofilo is crying out for a step up in trip and of the big priced runners, I suspect he is the one most likely to hit the frame if this becomes a solid test of stamina. Any rain would further aid his cause.
4/HURRICANE LANE
There is a strong argument to be made that this regally bred son of Frankel should be closer in the betting to Bolshoi Ballet following a thoroughly professional success in the Dante at York which took his career record to three from three.
He was initially outpaced about three and a half furlongs out, but then powered home under William Buick which would suggest that the extra yardage here is going to play massively in his favour.
5/JOHN LEEPER
This inexperienced colt is a work in progress, but each time he has visited the racecourse he has taken a big step forward.
Last time out, the bay colt was still quite green and did well to win off what was a pretty soft pace in the Newmarket Stakes but was ultimately well on top at the line. I fancy that trainer Ed Dunlop will be hoping that the forecast showers arrive on Friday afternoon to ensure that there is no jar in the ground and if that is the case he could well leapfrog the majority of his rivals on the form ladder.
6/MAC SWINEY
Was a big disappointment on this belated three-year-old debut when well beaten by Bolshoi Ballet, but bounced back with a brave success over a mile in the Irish 2,000 Guineas.
This is quite obviously a very different test for this son of New Approach and I think there will be stronger stayers ahead of him here.
7/MOHAAFETH
Glided through the race on his favoured top of the ground when landing the Fairway Stakes over 10 furlongs and Newmarket with any amount in hand.
But by comparison that looked a moderate contest and he will need to take a big step forward here. If he is to, then fast ground is his domain and if he gets a nice tow into the race anything is possible. His breeding strongly suggests that a mile and a half won’t prove a problem, but given his free going way I think 10 furlongs could ultimately be his domain with the Eclipse being a mid season aim for him.
8/MOJO STAR
The least experienced of the field with just the two runs under his belt, the son of Sea The Stars was beaten in a Haydock Park maiden on his comeback and it needs a huge leap of faith to support him here.
9/ONE RULER
There are mixed messages in his blood lines about the likely staying prowess of this experienced runner (six career outings to date). He is closely matched up with Mac Swiney on Futurity form and he was much too keen on his comeback run in the 2,000 Guineas to do himself justice. Quite obviously needs to relax a whole lot better to see out the 12 furlongs.
10/SOUTHERN LIGHTS
Looked paceless when well beaten last time out in the Derrinstown and surely has too much on his plate here despite being unexposed.
11/THIRD REALM
I know that Roger Varian thinks an awful lot of this son of Sea The Stars and his two wins at Nottingham in a maiden and the Lingfield Derby Trial were workmanlike, but he got the job done. His breeding tells us there could be a doubt about his getting home, but his style of racing suggests otherwise and he looks a lively outsider.
12/YOUTH SPIRIT
Seemed to relish the stiffer test in the Chester Vase and is one of a handful of these guaranteed to get home. A beautifully balanced individual I suspect that Tom Marquand will try and make plenty of use of him and he is no forlorn hope to be there right at the sharp end despite the worry of fast ground.
CONCLUSION:-
1 THIRD REALM (e/w)
2 JOHN LEEPER
3 BOLSHOI BALLET
4 HURRICANE LANE