SO, THERE we have it. As far as the SNP is concerned, we can ignore the global pandemic, a global economic crisis, the war in Ukraine and an upsurge in British working-class resistance to a profit-taking-induced inflationary spiral — all of that can be displaced by a second referendum on Scottish independence followed by that glorious, golden age where presumably class conflict is dissolved in Scotland. 

Nicola Sturgeon has announced that on October 23 2023 there will be another referendum on Scottish Independence — or maybe not. More of this later. 

To be fair the case presented in the SNP government’s document Independence in the Modern World. Wealthier, Happier, Fairer: Why Not Scotland? the first of a promised series of documents the Scottish government is publishing in support of independence, has shifted slightly from the Sustainable Growth Commission report of 2018. 

Both acknowledge that immediate entry to the land of milk and honey is not possible, but this latest offering downplays the purgatory of neoliberal austerity in favour of a limbo of “social partnership” where the inevitable ruptures propelled by the pursuit of profit above all else are healed by the medium of social partners (principally unions and bosses) in dialogue. 

This difference should not be overstated, however. The Sustainable Growth Commission also emphasised partnership and the Danish “flexicurity” model.

What is extraordinary about the SNP report is the fairly obvious manipulation of the evidence it gathers to support its case for independence. 

As in the Sustainable Growth Commission report, the countries chosen are selected on that basis. Portugal and Greece and the Czech and Slovak Republics are not referred to. 

And what about the Baltic states Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania? Wouldn’t they be interesting given their accession to the EU, a key aspiration of the SNP? 

According to World Bank estimates, the working-age population in all three countries is shrinking. By 2050 Latvia’s population could shrink by 22 per cent, while those in Lithuania and Estonia could decline by 17 per cent and 13 per cent, respectively. 

Since “free movement” Estonians, Latvians and Lithuanians have been leaving in numbers in search of higher wages and better job opportunities in other parts of the EU. 

According to National Records of Scotland (NRS), using data from the Office for National Statistics, Scotland’s population could fall by 1.5 per cent over the next 25 years even without further economic shocks. You can see why the Baltic states failed the inclusion test.

The Republic of Ireland (RoI) however, passed. In the barrage of tables we are dazzled with in this report, RoI is prominent, sometimes well ahead of other comparator nations in wealth creation, measured in gross domestic product (GDP). Incredibly the report itself highlights the perverseness of using RoI as a comparator. 

There is a footnote referring you to a paper which reads: “The unsuitability of GDP as a measure of both the size of the Irish economy and its rate of growth has been well documented for over 20 years…”

The problem is that GDP includes the income of foreign multinationals as well as “invisible assets” that are temporarily located there. In Ireland much of the profit made by multinationals is repatriated to the US and elsewhere. 

The RoI might have recovered from some of the worst economic pain that it has suffered under the troika-inflicted Excess Deficit Programme, but according to the OECD, inflationary pressures (currently at 9.6 per cent) will cut households’ real income and dampen consumption growth. 

No mention of that in the SNP government’s report.

And even when we consider those comparator countries with more robust economies, like Denmark, exactly how Scotland with its specific history, economy and culture is supposed to emulate them is obscure. 

This was put very effectively last year by Professor Mark Blyth who, ironically, sits on the Scottish government’s advisory council on transforming Scotland’s economy: “…what we’ve got is ‘Denmark is awesome, we should be like Denmark, if we were independent we would be Denmark.’ No, you wouldn’t be Denmark. Denmark took 600 years to become Denmark.”

How much individual histories matter can been glimpsed by considering Scotland’s relationship with the rest of the UK and the EU.  

Membership of latter is seen as an essential aspect of Scottish independence by the SNP. As part of the UK, Scotland was in the EU for over 40 years. 

It has been part of the UK for over 300 years. Scotland still exports more than three times as much to the rest of the UK than it does to the EU. 

Whether any of this will influence how Scots vote in a referendum depends of course on whether there is going to be a referendum. 

Sturgeon, insisting on legal certainty, has referred the right of Scotland’s Parliament to hold such a referendum to the Supreme Court, a process that will take over a month. 

If the Supreme Court says No, as is widely predicted, then Sturgeon says the 2024 general election will become a “de facto” referendum on independence. 

In both options she has given no space for the wider independence movement, her coalition partners the Scottish Greens, or even the SNP membership to influence the strategy, the question or the timing. 

It is hardly surprising, then, that those of us who believe that many Scots would favour a stronger Scottish Parliament in a reformed UK, rather than the binary choice on offer, will not get a hearing from the SNP.  

We believe that Scots should be allowed to vote for this third option. Given that the SNP will not concede it, the Labour Party and in particular the Scottish Labour Party should adopt it as part of their 2024 election campaign manifesto. 

It is not only a principled, democratic position it also makes electoral sense: a weekend poll by Panelbase found that if voters were asked to vote on the basis that a general election would determine whether there is a referendum, the SNP would get 47 per cent, Labour 23 per cent, the Tories 19 per cent, the Lib Dems 8 per cent and others (including the independence supporting Scottish Greens) 3 per cent. 

Scottish Labour needs to increase its support and that can only be done by reaching out to working-class voters currently voting SNP. You cannot do that by just saying No.