Skip to main content

Will 2019 be the year of the centrist split?

SOLOMON HUGHES introduces the contenders for the much-vaunted 'new party of the centre' and considers how they would fare against Corbyn's Labour

THE Observer’s “politics predictions for 2019” included this: “The centre ground … is wide open. Increasingly there is talk of discontented Labour and Tory MPs, perhaps backed by Liberal Democrats, forming a new centrist party from the political rubble left by Brexit.”

Predictions of a new centre party are not actually new. Squads of pundits have been claiming it would or should happen for two years.

Two journalists tried to make their prediction come true by actually founding a new centre party: ex-Daily Mail political editor and former Osborne adviser James Chapman launched “The Democrats,” then unlaunched it. Economist journalist Jeremy Cliffe launched “the Radicals UK.” Then unlaunched that too.  

But perhaps in 2019 the dream of a “new centre party” will become flesh. Many around Labour’s leadership  worry about it: Labour, by turning left and redeveloping a grassroots, has recovered massively, to a steady 40 per cent of the vote — higher than any time since 2005. However, the Tories, by grabbing Ukip-y voters, are also on a historic high of around 40 per cent.

With Labour and Tory so neck and neck, even if a new centre party only cuts away a few per cent off Labour’s vote, it can keep the Tories in power.

Certainly nobody with any sense expects a new centre party to be a big new thing. Contrary to what the Observer says, the “centre ground” is not wide open.

The Lib Dems, the actually existing party of the centre, are shrinking away. New centre party enthusiasts believe that being an out-and-out “second referendum” party will be a strong draw.
But there are three parties promoting a second referendum — the Lib Dems, the Greens and the Scottish Nationalists. None are increasing vote share. We are actually in a period of political polarisation.

The economic crisis has worn away at existing institutions and political compromises. Voters are moving away from the centre, in both directions.

However, while a new centre party has less resonance among voters, “centrist” politics are hugely popular among MPs, newspaper pundits, think tankers and the rest of the “professional political class.”

So a new centre party will get a lot of “official” support to make up for a lack of popular passion. This must count for something.
Hence Labour nervousness of a new centre party acting as a spoiler in an election does make sense.

But personally, I think — bring it on. It’s an unavoidable battle. Let’s get it over with.

I think this long-awaited launch, like so many other long-awaited launches, will fizzle out. The supposedly new and modern “new centrist party” will catch on just like other techno modernist dreams, the Sinclair C5 and Google Glasses.

The victory of Corbynism isn’t a single fight. It is more like an interminable video game. With many levels. Corbyn and his supporters have had to fight a battle and beat a “boss.” Only to then be on another level, knocking “minions” out of the way and solving puzzles, before facing another “boss.”

Corbyn beat Burnham/Cooper/Kendall et al in 2015. Only to then have to take on Owen Smith in 2016. Smith turned out to be what video gamers call a “Mini Boss” rather than a Boss.

However, Theresa May was tougher in 2017. Corbyn gained enough “health” and “weapons” to get back in the game against May, but not quite win. So we are all waiting to try that level again.

But the “third party” level is just one that needs to be got through along the way. I think it is unavoidable, so it is just a case of how weak a challenge it will be.

There definitely will be one “third party” launching in 2019 — the one launched by millionaire Simon Franks, which was started under the science-fiction-villain name “Project One Movement.”

It has since been renamed “United for Change,” which also sounds like a creepy authoritarian party from science fiction.

Franks launched the now defunct LoveFilm, and is using the money from the now ceased mail order CD rental service to fund his new centrist party.

But in a fit of millionaire ego, Franks alienated Labour MPs who were interested in his money: he demanded too much control, and put off New Labour MPs looking for a new home.

There was also a clash of egos with other rich men in the “project” — Adam Knight, a former Goldman Sachs banker Franks had brought on board, has walked out to found his own new centrist party called “Twelve Together.”

If it is just Franks, it will be an easy level. However, there is the chance of a more serious challenge from Chuka Umunna, who is rumoured to want to use some of the machinery of the “People’s Vote” second referendum campaign to launch a breakaway. If Umunna gathers the courage, this could be a bit more serious.

But I think Corbyn will face a rebellion by the hardcore New Labour MPs, either before or after an election. Either on open ground as a new centre party before an election, or by a rebellion of New Labour MPs to bring down Corbyn after an election.

It’s probably easier to fight this on open ground rather than an attack from behind. A new centrist party would be a challenge to Labour.

It could attract a few decent-minded voters. Perhaps even some well-meaning, if confused activists for a time, before it collapsed, but it would also draw all the worst elements — hardcore New Labour MPs who actively don’t want to challenge the existing order, billionaires who think their occasional donations are worth more than the thousands of party members, consultants who like using billionaire donations for focus groups that come up with ever more rightward politics and so on.

When I want to stop the slugs eating my beans, I’ve found a “beer trap” works well: it’s a covered bowl of beer. Slugs smell the delicious brew and head towards it, ignoring the beans.

They fall into the openings and, instead of getting a drink, drown in the beer. The resulting mess of beer and slugs is a bit disgusting and takes time to clean, but it protects the plants.

A new centre party will be a mess. But it will also be a “beer trap” for some of the worst players in politics: they think it will be attractive, but it will actually spell their doom.

 

OWNED BY OUR READERS

We're a reader-owned co-operative, which means you can become part of the paper too by buying shares in the People’s Press Printing Society.

 

 

Become a supporter

Fighting fund

You've Raised:£ 13,288
We need:£ 4,712
3 Days remaining
Donate today